"The bookmaker can be beaten in the pre-match - 9 myths that the professional player destroys"

“The bookmaker can be beaten in the pre-match – 9 myths that the professional player destroys”

For every beginner, and even for seasoned players, there is always the choice of whether to play live or pre-match. Many believe that playing pre-match is more difficult, and that it is impossible to win over the bookmaker over a distance in the major markets. Let’s find out why this is not the case.

What is distance and why is it important?
The term ‘distance’ will be mentioned many times in this article. Let’s start by breaking down what it is. The distance is equivalent to 500 or more bets. This number of stakes for the distance was determined so that novice players, for whom this article is primarily written, would understand their level, their strategies, and their thoughts.

The point of the distance is not only for the player to determine his level. Also, practical betting experience is gained at the distance: some will pay attention to betting time, some will look for the maximum odds. There are a lot of variations. And most importantly, when betting on the distance, you will learn to accept the lucky and unlucky streaks that everyone has. Imagine losing seven bets in a row. When it comes the first time, the feelings of it are very discouraging. Now think back to when you’ve won seven bets out of a possible seven. Totally different feeling, right?

The distance will smooth out the experience of both winning and losing. Which can be considered an obvious plus, the player is deprived of the interfering complacency that the first successful series can provide. You begin to perceive the change of series as the change of day and night.

And most importantly – after a long distance you will no longer have a psychological barrier for drawdowns. There will be no unnecessary convulsive movements. And what is there to talk about, when there will be several of these streaks in 500 bets. Remember your first day behind the wheel: everyone honking, going somewhere, cutting off. Not the fondest of memories? Now remember what happened to you after you’ve driven 30,000 kilometres. It’s a completely different experience. And other people don’t drive differently. Same here. Having run his mind around the track, the player will be reassured of his results. He will know what he is capable of and know what to expect. On the distance, the player will gain experience that will come in very handy later on, and if you use strict financial discipline, even if you lose, the player will not be able to lose the entire game bank.

  1. There is special software that determines the line in the bookmaker’s office, and a team of analysts that corrects the line. And it’s impossible to fight them.
    Yes, the bookmaker does have such tools and indeed at the distance the software helps the bookmaker to win. But at the heart of the profitability of a betting company is mainly the player’s misconception, greed and misunderstanding of the upcoming game. Besides, it doesn’t cost that much to write a program to help with statistics nowadays, and if the statistics are your own, it’s even easier to do. The practice of writing your own programs is several years old, and this is only about the territory of the former USSR. There are many more such programmes abroad.
  2. A man is very weak and cannot cope with himself by betting.
    Any strategy and any thoughts are only run around with real money. It is advisable to avoid all sorts of simulators and playing for virtual money. Playing with real, your own money is a real experience. Even if it is painful, unpleasant. Bet at least one dollar on an event, especially when playing your strategy. This gives psychological confidence in what you are doing – and it is the right thing to do. If the strategy or thoughts are backed up by a distance of 500-1000 bets, it will not be psychologically difficult to increase the pot and play for more serious amounts of money. If this is done gradually, the effect of going to large sums of money will be very much smoothed out. If psychologically the player is weak, if he cannot hold his own and cannot control his game, following strict financial discipline, if the player is worried about losses, it is better to put money in Sberbank, see a psychologist or play live. Better still, stay away from the bookmaker’s office.3. When using their algorithms and betting with software the data will become obsolete.
  3. A few years ago a programme was written in the USA which in the first year brought in 4% from one sport. The next year it was 2.8%, one year later it was 1.3%. And it’s not about the data, it’s about the bookmakers, who are also not standing still and changing. But the player can also refine his algorithms over the years. And the question of data in this aspect is very complicated, because everything will depend on what data the player will be relying on. And it absolutely does not matter whether the player will use manual or automated betting. Because there is a strategy that has to be followed. And if this strategy has been used for a long distance, the player does not care about drawdowns of 5 or 25 bets in a row, because he has seen similar drawdowns and soaring rises at a distance more than once.
  4. With a small bet of 1000 Euro your profit of a few thousands per month will be insignificant. You cannot generalize here, categorically. If a player places one bet per month and wins with odds of 4.0, then such a player has no options: he simply has no idea of his distance and cannot analyze his bets competently. We would send such a player to a bar to watch MJ under 18+ drinks. But if a player makes 300 bets of 1000 roubles a month and gets 3 thousand roubles at the end, we can say here that the player has reached 1% of the turnover, and it’s not that little. You can draw conclusions and increase the bank.
  5. To win you need to bet a large sum to be in a tangible profit. This is a profound misconception. A player’s true profit is determined by the percentage of cash turnover. Imagine a situation where a player bets 1000 bets a month, and not 1000 dollars, but at least 100 dollars for each bet. His turnover would be 100 thousand dollars, and even a modest 2% of turnover gives the opportunity not to go to work. About 6% it is better to remain silent.
  6. The starting line of a bookmaker’s office gives an edge to the player. But to play on the starting line, you need to play on normal bookmakers, and even better on aggregators like Sportmarket (I don’t know if it is banned in Russia). Except that there are very mature players sitting on the starting line with million-dollar banks and special programs that pick up the probable error in the starting line in the first 3-5 minutes after the line is released. No SRO bookmaker will allow you to play this way for long. In the early stages of the game it is advisable to pay attention to the starting line, but not to play on it. That’s where they come in later, with a solid bankroll and specialist knowledge.
  7. The starting line-up can be misleading for the player, as he does not know the coaching plan, motivations, line-ups, injuries. Many factors unknown to the player are already accounted for in the line. Because in case of obvious mistakes, the betting office will incur tangible losses. It is written about the starting line (see above), under what circumstances it is worth playing it. But the starting line is just dry numbers. It all starts when the line goes out and the money moves. And that’s a factor not to be missed. Also worth noting: if the main defender is injured a few hours before the match, neither the bookmaker nor the player knows about it.
  8. You have to process a lot of data for a correct bet, and you have to think about big drawdowns, about 5000 dollars for 5 bets. The maths here is simple. A financial strategy model of 5% of the pot is used to calculate. If a player makes these bets, 5 bets a day of $1000 each, then he puts 1% of the bank on each bet. So his bank should be: $1000 (1%)*100 = $100,000. It’s hard to imagine that such a player would think about how to feed his family. This is not even shown in fantasy films. Based on the resulting calculation of the bank’s financial strategy, a second misconception arises – about the data set. If a player will place such bets just for the excitement, it means that he is at least a shareholder of Gazprom or a minister. And if he is a professional player, with a bank like this, a normal player would pay due attention to both the software and the analysis and processing of the data. After all, he is essentially an investor and calculates all his risks.
  9. In search of an advantage a player can reach the lower leagues, such as the third leagues of Iceland, Mexico and the like, but he won’t be allowed to play there for long.
    Indeed, the maximums on third leagues are dozens of times different from the maximums on top leagues and top clubs. And indeed, many bookmakers identify such players who know such championships better than the entire team of analysts. It takes knowledge, and to acquire it you have to deal with the issue. And there will be two variants: either the player will be invited to work in a bookmaker’s office, or the player will bet several bets on one match to earn money. Perhaps even in play, as there will be fewer restrictions. It should be noted here, that the maximum for African championship in one very famous bookmaker’s office will be almost 900 euros, and for Saudi Arabian championship 300 euros. If you have a broker/aggregator in mind, you should personally investigate the maximum bets for the second and third leagues. Then your questions will be settled once and for all. Furthermore, you can bet more than once on the aggregator. So to say that it is impossible to earn money here, of course, can be, but it would be a clear understatement.

To sum it up

In order to make an informed bet, you need to determine your strengths over a distance. This is done in order to understand your level, to understand the correctness of your thoughts or strategy. Without distance, no player can answer these questions for themselves. A few talking points:

  • if a player bets without following financial discipline, if he is weak psychologically, plays for his last money and for the sake of gambling, to watch a football match, when there is no understanding of the principles of a betting office, the principles of formation and change of odds – let such a player not be surprised that the bookmaker’s account has to be replenished often.
  • If a player places one bet a week, we will send him to a bar to watch Zenit, and such a person can hardly be called a player.
  • If the player plays 500 bets within three months and sees the profit, you can think about the increasing of the bank and the polishing of the strategy, analysis of mistakes. (*)

Somehow it is considered that the basic markets – Fohs, Odds and Totals – are so accurate and correct for the profitability of a bookmaker’s office, that it is impossible to make money on them over a distance. And the vast majority of players (99%) will be, if not in deficit, then around zero. Particularly interesting to read about this one percent will be those who have had their betting account cut for winnings. If you look at it superficially, it really is. But if you deal with a question like that, you’ll see that Real Madrid could be releasing a second line-up for the King’s Cup, De Bruyne will suddenly miss passes and kicks, and Ronaldo will get injured early in the match and be swatting away a butterfly on crutches.

All the stats, all the injuries, everything about the match in general will be reflected on the line. But the line will also reflect money, player expectations, team names and many other factors that will have very little to do with football. Therefore, knowledge and the right match selection will bring profits over the distance. There are thousands of strategies for pre-match, you can pick and choose any one you like.

But don’t assume that winning at a bookmaker’s office is easy. Just imagine you’ve come to the financial market to buy a stock, imagine taking apart a Porsche engine, making dentures, writing an appeal to the Supreme Court… just about any job you can think of. Can you really get anything done without experience and knowledge?

(*) – the figure of 500 bets in three months is not an axiom. Every player chooses his own way of playing, strategy and number of bets. The point of this point is that you need to know your strengths in a large number of bets.